Four states will determine the 2020 election - Trump is in very bad shape in all of them
President Donald Trump's margin of victory in 2016 was so small, that he won the presidency by fewer than 80,000 in three states.
We all know that the popular vote for Hillary Clinton was a slam dunk, giving her more than a 4 million vote lead nationwide, but that doesn't matter. All that matters is the electoral college, and it will still matter in 2020 like it or not.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida are the four states that will determine who becomes the next president, analysts say. That's where all the energy and effort needs to go.
For Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - Trump won those states by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. That gave him 46 electoral votes, votes that could have easily gone to Clinton making her president. They didn't.
Trump only won Florida by a 1.2% margin, slightly higher than the other states. Even if Trump were to win this state again, he'd still need to recapture all three of the north states - or find substitutes to win the White House.
Trump beat all the odds the first time around, but who wins the lottery twice in a row?
Let's talk about current numbers: Trump is way behind in Pennsylvania (16 percentage points), Wisconsin (10 points) and Michigan (11 points). According to the Morning Consult, Trump’s current approval rating in Pennsylvania has plummeted more than 19 points since Inauguration Day.
You just can't afford these kinds of hits with such a narrow path to victory. Democrats have won these crucial Rust Belt states six consecutive elections in a row before 2016, so there's really no indication that these states will hold up, especially while the current winds don't seem to be going his way.
Trump is in serious danger and his advisers know it.
Trump's trade war with China isn't going great, and the likelihood of a recession has increased.
His rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement might not pass through Congress, leaving him without a major victory on a signature issue.
The U.S. manufacturing sector just contracted by a very important metric.
Per Politico, all of this is going to impact him in these key states, states that vote overwhelmingly with the economy:
"Trump internal and external advisers know one of their biggest vulnerabilities is weakness in American manufacturing, a sector the president promised to revive with his aggressive trade policy. The pledges helped Trump secure surprising — and quite narrow — wins in key states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But the manufacturing numbers are moving in the wrong direction for the president."